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Gulf Capital

The year ahead for Gulf private capital

How Gulf sovereign funds and family offices are allocating, why localisation matters, and what a Western business raising from the region should plan for.

Wrotham Partners 7 min read

Scale is the starting point. Gulf sovereign wealth funds manage roughly US$5 trillion, according to Moody's, and they remain the most active state investors in the world. Global SWF reports that the seven largest Gulf sovereign funds, ADIA, ADQ, Mubadala, ICD, KIA, QIA and PIF, invested US$119 billion in 2025, which was 43% of all capital deployed by state-owned investors that year. In the first half of 2026 the same group committed US$53.9 billion, a half-year record by Global SWF's count. For a Western business planning a raise over the coming year, those numbers confirm that capital is available. They say much less about how easy it is to reach.

Sovereign funds act as partners and builders. The largest Gulf allocators rarely write passive cheques into blind pools. They prefer strategic partnerships, anchor commitments, co-investment alongside trusted origination partners and, increasingly, platforms of their own. In April 2025 Mubadala agreed a US$1 billion partnership with Fortress Investment Group across private credit and asset-based lending. More strikingly, Mubadala's own credit portfolio, built since 2009 alongside 14 origination partners and now standing at US$25 billion, moved to Mubadala Capital in July 2026 and opened to third-party investors, with US$4.65 billion of new capital committed, according to Mubadala Capital. The biggest Gulf institutions are therefore the most important counterparties for global managers and, in some strategies, their competitors.

A Gulf office remains optional for raising from the region, but sovereign investors read a local commitment as a signal of seriousness.

Family offices are reshaping their portfolios. UBS's Global Family Office Report 2026 found that 82% of Middle East family offices plan to change their strategic asset allocation in 2026, the highest of any region and well above the global figure of 60%. Private debt made up 5% of their strategic allocation in 2025, again the highest of any region surveyed, against a 3% global average. By geography, the same cohort holds 50% of its portfolio in North America, 18% in Western Europe and 15% in the Middle East. UBS flags the Middle East sample as small, so these figures are best read as direction rather than precision. The direction is clear enough: Gulf family offices are active, outward-looking and open to new exposures.

There is also a currency angle. UBS reports that 22% of Middle East family offices have reduced, or are considering reducing, their exposure to US dollar assets, and 75% expect confidence in the dollar's reserve role to weaken slightly over the coming year. For businesses based in London and Europe, the Western Europe allocation, and any wish to diversify away from dollar concentration, is a practical opening. Standards do not fall for a non-US deal, but a well-prepared European business may find a more receptive first conversation than it expects.

Different investors want different things. Sovereign funds tend to look for scale, a partnership they can shape and, often, a regional dimension. Family offices usually write smaller tickets than sovereign funds and expect a closer, more personal relationship with management, frequently with co-investment rights or board observation attached. Private investors, often members of a business family investing alongside the family office, may move faster on a deal they like but will rely heavily on who introduced it. Banks, insurers and some family offices that follow Shariah principles strictly can only invest through compliant structures, so for them the form of the investment decides whether a conversation can happen at all. Treating these groups as one audience is a common reason a raise stalls.

The markets differ too. Abu Dhabi is home to ADIA, Mubadala and ADQ, Riyadh to PIF, Doha to QIA and Kuwait to KIA, and each city has its own family office community with its own habits. Moody's expects Saudi Arabia and the UAE to drive most of the growth in regional private credit, with Saudi Arabia as the main source of borrower demand and the UAE as the structuring and fund-formation hub. In Saudi Arabia, SMEs received 9.4% of bank lending in 2024 against a Vision 2030 target of 20%, according to official data. An investor in Riyadh may therefore ask how a business relates to national priorities, while an investor in Dubai or Abu Dhabi may focus more on structure and where the vehicle is domiciled.

Localisation is the pressure to plan for. Sovereign anchors increasingly favour managers and companies that can show a regional dimension. PIF signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Goldman Sachs Asset Management in March 2025 to anchor new GCC private credit and public equity strategies, and in April 2026 it anchored a regional lending fund with King Street Capital Management. The DIFC introduced a dedicated credit fund framework in 2022 and ADGM followed with its Private Credit Fund Rules in 2023. ADGM reports that its assets under management rose 54% year on year in the first half of 2026, and that the number of asset and fund managers there rose from 154 to 190 in twelve months. A Gulf office remains optional for raising from the region, but sovereign investors read a local commitment as a signal of seriousness. That commitment can be modest, such as a willingness to deploy some capital or build customers in the GCC.

The local credit market is still small. Moody's estimates the GCC's own private credit market at around US$6 billion, a fraction of the capital the region's sovereign funds control. PwC and the DIFC Authority project growth of 15 to 30% a year over the next five to six years across the GCC and Egypt, which would take the market to between US$11 billion and US$20 billion, though projections are not outcomes. For most Western businesses, the near-term opportunity sits in Gulf capital invested abroad, with any regional activity supporting the case rather than defining it.

Scrutiny is rising alongside appetite. Moody's notes that for private credit growth in the GCC to remain credit-positive, managers will need conservative borrowing levels, strong covenant protection and thorough borrower assessment. UBS finds family offices globally paying closer attention to liquidity, valuation uncertainty and concentration risk, and reports that 61% are concerned about a major geopolitical conflict over the next five years and 56% about a major debt crisis. Middle East family office portfolios are already 46% alternatives, against a 42% global average, so a new private investment competes with a book that is already full of them.

The questions come early and they are specific. Expect to be asked who else is investing and on what terms, how the business has performed through a difficult period, how valuation was arrived at, what reporting the investor will receive and how often, what rights protect a minority holder, how and when the investor might exit, and whether the structure can accommodate co-investment or Shariah requirements. Expect also to be asked why this investor, in this city, is the right partner. A clear answer to that last question often matters more than any slide in the deck.

A worked example. Consider a hypothetical London business planning to raise EUR 15 million of growth equity in 2027. If it begins in the month it needs the money, it will meet investors who do not know it, under time pressure, with a deck written for London. A better sequence starts much earlier: informal introductions to a small number of family offices in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait, a data room built before the first formal meeting, a view on whether any part of the round could be offered in a Shariah-compatible form, and a plain explanation of what a Gulf partner would bring beyond money. The raise itself then becomes a continuation of conversations already under way.

Common mistakes are predictable. Businesses send the same generic deck to every investor in the region. They assume a first meeting that goes well is close to a commitment. They raise structure questions, such as Shariah compatibility or co-investment rights, only after an investor has asked, which suggests the issue was never considered. They underestimate how long familiarity takes to build. And they treat the region's headline wealth as evidence that their own raise will be easy, which it does not show.

What a Western business should expect. Timelines tend to run longer than in London or New York, because decisions sit with a small number of senior people, often after a long period of familiarity. UBS finds that only 31% of family offices globally have a formal process for selecting external providers, which is why a trusted introduction carries weight. Expect detailed questions on governance, reporting and structure. Expect, too, that a first meeting rarely produces a commitment.

Preparation matters more than timing. The capital outlook into 2027 is supportive, but it does not secure any individual raise, and conditions can change quickly. Businesses that start relationships early, present a clear structure and can explain why a Gulf investor is a natural partner tend to make better use of the window. Wrotham Partners advises Western businesses on that preparation from London, with senior coverage across the GCC.

This commentary is provided for general information and reflects the views of Wrotham Partners at the time of writing. It does not constitute investment, legal or financial advice.

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